Start Em’

Zach Ertz, TE, Philadelphia Eagles

Eagles tight end Zach Ertz isn’t the tight end we saw last year but he’s still seeing dominant volume for a tight end:

• 601 air yards - 2nd among tight ends
• 64 targets - 2nd
• .53 WOPR (combined market share of targets and air yards) - 4th

Unlike many players who underperform their volume on a weekly basis, Ertz is on an efficient offense. The Eagles have scored .39 points per play, good for 14th in the NFL.

Ertz hasn’t shown a high ceiling this season—he’s scored just once and hasn’t topped 72 yards yet—but he’s still the No. 7 tight end in PPR formats. 

Don’t let disappointment cloud your judgment, Ertz is still a top play at tight end every week.

Mike Williams, WR, LA Chargers

Despite reports of limited work for Keenan Allen, the veteran went out and garnered 10 targets. This kept Mike Williams from putting up a stellar performance but he continued to do Mike Williams things. He was targeted six times and had a team-high 112 air yards but only converted on 69 of them. 

Since returning from injury in Week 5, Williams leads all players with 507 air yards. He has scored at least eight points in every game since Week 5.

Williams is getting enough volume on a weekly basis to ensure that he won’t sink your team based on yards alone. The game he connects on multiple deep shots will be an explosive one.

Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen has struggled to reproduce the magic he showed last season. Allen has peaked at 22.2 fantasy points in a game this season. On the other hand, his floor has been phenomenal as well. He has gone over 18 points in every game but one this season. 

Allen’s floor has been propped up by his rushing production. He is second among quarterbacks at 7.6 carries per game and third at 33.9 rushing yards per game.

Rushing volume is the cheat code for quarterbacks. It builds a great floor and has historically given Allen a high ceiling. He has four games of 90 rushing yards in 2018. 

Allen’s floor/ceiling combo makes him an every-week starter.

Austin Ekeler, RB, LA Chargers

All Chargers receiving options have to be started at this point. They are throwing on two-thirds of their play. Only two teams pass more often on a per play basis. It was easy for the receiving options to fail las week as the Chargers netted their second win in seven games. When the game script plays out in their favor, the passing game is less viable.

Melvin Gordon has played four games this season. The Chargers have lost in three of them and in those three, Ekeler had 28 targets. In their one victory with Gordon, Ekeler had three targets. 

LA faces the Packers this week and they’ll be massive underdogs at “home”. That brings Ekeler back to the forefront of fantasy running backs. 

Sit Em’

Melvin Gordon, RB, LA Chargers

Melvin Gordon has 37.9 PPR points since returning and he’s fortunate to even have that many. Gordon’s yards per touch of 2.6 ranks 55th among running backs. Gordon’s two scores have masked how inefficient he’s been. 

In four games, Gordon has a target share of 10%. He’s 5th on the Chargers in target share and 8th in market share of air yards.

Unless the Chargers are large favorites, there’s no reason to play an inefficient grinder in negative game-script.

Keke Coutee, WR, Houston Texans

Many speculated that the loss of Will Fuller would be a boon in volume for Keke Coutee. Those people were wrong...very wrong. Coutee was seemingly benched for DeAndre Carter and played zero snaps.

Kenny Stills completely took over for Fuller.

If Coutee went out and put up a lackluster performance he would still be a viable flex play. Getting benched is a different story. He was already a touchdown-dependent player because of how little volume he was seeing. Now he isn’t even a lock to take the field anymore. It’s safe to cut Coutee in season-long leagues.

Cameron Brate, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I hope you were fortunate enough to scoop Jonnue Smith off the waiver wire instead of Cameron Brate. Smith scored within seconds of kickoff while Brate wound up with three catches for 32 yards.

Brate was targeted six times but that accounted for 14% of the team’s targets. His 42 air yards were just 9% of the team’s total.

If Brate can’t get there when his team throws the ball 43 times he probably won’t get there on an average game. The Bucs are throwing the ball 37.6 times per game this season.

Ryan Tannehill, QB, Tennessee Titans

After getting the start over Marcus Mariota, Ryan Tannehill was a streaming option for many fantasy teams. He’s thrown five touchdowns in two starts and rewarded anyone who had the gaul to fire him up in back-to-back games.

Referring to these two starts as outliers would be an understatement. Fitpatrick is has a touchdown rate of 8.1% and an interception rate of 1.6%. His career marks for these metrics are 4.3% and 2.6%. Either Tannehill has turned a corner and is a good quarterback after six years in the NFL or he’s going to come back to Earth sooner rather than later. 

This week the Titans face the Panthers. Carolina has held opposing passers to 5.8 yards per attempt, 5th-best in the league. There’s no better time for Tannehill to flame out than  Week 9.