NBA Breakdown 11/1/2019
There are 8 games on tonight's board. I'll walk through each game and give you my thoughts for each. Remember to buy my Core Plays to get up to the last minute core plays for tonights slate. Let's begin...
Houston (-4.5) at Brooklyn O/U 241
Harden and Westbrook are ALWAYS in play. On this slate, I would prefer Russel Westbrook. hee would likely be the play for me over Harden with the 1200 price difference. PJ Tucker, Daniel House, AND Eric Gordon are good value pieces on this slate in a pace up spot.
Brooklyn
Kyrie Irving has a 36% usage rate which is through the roof. Spencer Dinwiddie has a 30% usage rate of the bench. really like both of those plays they don't negatively correlate because they don't play together very often.
Cleveland at Indiana (-7) O/U 213
Cleveland
Tristan Thompson has been absolutely crushing, 1.26 fantasy pointer per minute with a 22% usage rate. Kevin Love is probably a better play on Fanduel than Draftkings at his price tag, Love looks like Timberwolves Kevin Love early on here and the price on Draftkings reflects it.
Indiana
No Myles Turner for Indiana tonight, the sites did a great job of pricing up Domantas Sabonis who would be a free square if it wasn't for the price hike. Malcolm Brogdon has been fantastic he has a 33% usage rate through the first five games of the season. Brogdon is priced appropriately for his output even though it might seem elevated. Jeremy Lamb is a great play he will likely see 30 minutes, I don't even hate Justin Holiday. Doug McDermott played a bunch of minutes after Turner left the other night but really doesn't do much.
Milwaukee (-4.5) at Orlando O/U 215
Milwaukee
Giannis would be the play for me, but I don't usually play him, and the matchup is not great.
Orlando
Aaron Gordon is cheap so is Jonathan Isaac, but I do not love this game.
New York at Boston O/U 214
New York
Elf Payton and Dennis Smith Junior are still out. Frank Nitkilina and RJ Barret should see a usage bump. Barrett let a lot of people down in a chalky spot and gets a great matchup tonight. Julius Randle seems like another great play versus a Celtics team that can't rebound.
Boston
Daniel Theis would be my favorite play on the Celtics they are going to need bigs to deal with Randle. Theis is going to see over 25 minutes and he is 4k.
Detroit at Chicago (-3.5) O/U 215
Detroit
Andre Drummond is a really strong play again with Blake out. I don't mind Derrick Rose revenge, not that he's a vengeful guy, I just think this is a good spot for him. Luke Kennard is also likely to see 30 minutes.
Chicago
Zack Lavine is an extremely strong play tonight, matchup is fantastic versus Chicago. Otto Porter is (4,300) he's too cheap but he is also someone I personally never get right.
Los Angeles Lakers (-1.5) at Dallas O/U 216.5
Los Angeles
Anthony Davis is REALLY good at basketball he is always in play. Kyle Kuzma is back, I'm not touching Kuz until we see how they plan to utilize him.
Dallas
Luka Doncic is also REALLY good at basketball, outside of that I can't really figure out Dallas. Seth Curry, Maxi Kebler, seem like strong value pivots off of chalkier guys on this slate.
Utah (-5.5) at Sacramento O/U 213.5
Utah
Donovan Mitchell is a strong tournament play on this slate and Mike Connely is due for positive regression with his high usage rate, outside of that I don't have much interest.
Sacrament
Richard Holmes seems like one of the better value plays on the slate, but his matchup is terrible versus Rudy Gobert.
San Antonio (-7) at Golden State O/U 225
San Antonio
Dejounte Murray is out, I think Bryan Forbes is interesting as a value play versus a Warriors team that is paced up and plays no defense.
Golden State
Deangelo Russel is priced through the roof, but he should see an extreme usage bump, I wouldn't play him personally but he's in play. Outside of Russel Glenn Robinson is interesting for the value. Willy Cauley Stein could be an interesting value option at four k.