ATS Last Week: 1-1-1
ATS This Season: 23-21-1
Miami Dolphins + 16 @ New England Patriots
Why would you bet the Dolphins going to New England? Well, I’ll tell you. For starters, in games where one team has something to play for and the other team is already out of the playoffs, the line gets inflated due to public perception. Per the Action Network, teams with no motivation to win (playoff seeding) that are a three point dog or more have hit over 60% ATS since 1990. Additionally, the Patriots have been all out of sorts over the last few weeks and seem to be stumbling into the playoffs this season. They could get caught napping here against a Dolphins team that is likely to play aggressive here.
Carolina Panthers + 13 vs New Orleans Saints
Another line that is too wide is the Panthers as a home dog against the Saints. If the Packers beat the Lions which is very likely then this game actually won’t matter for the Saints so we may not even see the starters play the whole game. Additionally 78% of bets are on the Saints here but the line has not moved at all suggesting that sharp money is backing the Panthers here. It also helps that they are trying to let Christian McCaffrey break records this year suggesting that the starters should play most of the game if not all of it.
Chicago Bears + 1 @ Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings have absolutely nothing to play for this week. Additionally they are very banged up and will likely use this week to get healthy before the playoffs. It is very likely that we see Minnesota’s backups the entire game here and the Bears could treat this as a game to end the season on a high note. I think the Bears should be the favorite here so I’m taking the money line in this one. 81% of bets are on Minnesota at home here but again the line has not moved at all. You know what to do!