ATS Last Week: 3-0
ATS This Season: 22-20
Houston Texans – 3 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
A massive 82% of the bets are coming in on Houston and has moved the opening line of -1 to -3 despite the total dropping a whole four points. It makes sense why the public and sharps are uniting in this matchup with the Bucs being without their top two playmakers in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. The Bucs run game has been very inefficient all season and now they will need to rely on the likes of Breshad Perriman and Justin Watson to move the ball down the field to keep up with this high scoring Houston offense. The matchup sets up very well for Deandre Hopkins and the Texans passing attack and I expect them to move the ball at will on Saturday. I’d bet the Texans by a touchdown here in this spot.
Cincinnati Bengals – 1 @ Miami Dolphins
The Bengals opened up as a one point dog here on the road but have since moved to a one point favorite despite just 40% of tickets backing them. This reverse line movement suggest that sharps are all over the Bengals here enough to flip the line. I would have to agree as the Bengals have been playing much better than their record suggest. With Andy Dalton back under center and John Ross returned from injury, the Bengals are a much more difficult matchup than meets the eye. I expect this game to be a back and forth affair but trust the Bengals to get the job done this week.
Philadelphia Eagles + 2.5 vs Dallas Cowboys
It is pretty wild that one of these teams are going to make the playoffs with how disappointing both of them have been this year. That being said, I think we are getting some value on the Eagles side after Dallas stomped the Rams last week. The Eagles are at home and getting points in a close game that I believe the Eagles could win. They have a chance to get some offensive weapons back this week and the resurgence of Miles Sanders and Zach Ertz couldn’t have come at a better time when their passing attack needs them. I’ll be taking a poke at the home underdog with a playoff spot on the line this week.