Quarterback

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills, $7,700

The Buffalo Bills quietly own the second-highest implied team total on the main slate. Vegas projects Buffalo to score 28.5 points. Josh Allen, as always, is a threat to hit John Brown deep or rush for multiple scores. 

This season, Allen is third in the NFL at 31.6 rushing yards per game.

His passing game still leaves something to be desired but no opponent helps quarterbacks more than Allen’s this week: Miami.

Miami has allowed the most Fanduel points per game to opposing passers at 24.6. Based on the Vegas total and his rushing equity, Josh Allen has the highest touchdown upside of any passer on the slate.

Running Back

Marlon Mack, Indianapolis Colts, $7,100

Deandre Hopkins is going to be owned by more than 10% of DFS players and T.Y. Hilton has the potential to be the most popular play of the main slate at wide receiver. Despite this, neither passer in this game is going to be popular and the Over/Under has moved down a point since opening at 48. 

This makes Marlon Mack the perfect leverage play. The Colts would be smart to play his game like they played the Chiefs. Run effectively, generate pressure, and win in a low-scoring affair. If they are able to execute this game-plan, neither Hilton nor Hopkins will be likely to hit. Mack, on the other hand, would crush value at his minimal cost.

Devonta Freeman, Atlanta Falcons, $6,400

In tournaments, you have to have some exposure to the showdown between Atlanta and the Rams. This game features a 54.5-point total. That mark is the highest of the main slate by four points. The game is also going to be overwhelmingly popular because of this. Most players will look to stack the Falcons passing attack. Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and Austin Hooper are all likely to sit somewhere between 10% and 15% ownership.

Devonta Freeman should come at under 10% ownership and leverages the massive ownership that passing game stacks of Atlanta are going to come with.

Finally, Freeman has been hampered by Ito Smith this season but last week the Falcons moved away from the young back. Smith played on just 18% of the team’s snaps, his second-lowest mark of the season. If this trend continues, Freeman will be a workhorse back in the best game fo the slate. That’s worth betting on at $6,400.

Wide Receiver

John Brown, Buffalo Bills, $6,200

John, “Air Yards” Brown is always a good play because of the weekly upside that he flashed in Week 1 of this season. He is tied at 14th with 34% of the Bills’ air yards and 21st in total air yards (531) despite already having a bye week under his belt. 

He is also tied for first on his team with 39 targets,

Brown’s depth of target—15.3—makes his overall fantasy outputs extremely high variance. He only needs two-three catches to crush a slate. If you’re playing Allen, stacking him with Brown is a necessity. 

Mike Williams, Los Angeles Charger, $5,900

Mike Williams has quietly overtaken Keenan Allen as the No. 1 receiver for the Chargers. Since coming back from a back injury, Mike Williams leads the league in air yards (347) and is out-targeting Allen 23-12. 

The Chargers/Titans total has moved up 2.5-points since opening representing the largest movement of the slate. Sharp money expects points to more points to be scored here than lets on making it an interesting game to have some equity in. Hunter Henry is going to be a top-two play at tight end but the air yards point to Williams. 

Tight End

Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens, $6,700

Marquise Brown has yet to practice this week making Mark Andrews the Ravens’ de facto No. 1 receiver. Last week, in the same role, Andrews was dominant in terms of volume:

• 8 targets - 24% target share
• 72 air yards - 28% share

Fanduel prioritizes touchdowns with their lack of any yardage bonuses and .5 points for receptions. That plays well for Andrews who is second on the Ravens in red zone targets at five. Brown is first on the team leaving behind six targets, many of which Andrews would be expected to get assuming Brown can’t play.

The Ravens are underdogs for only the second time this year. If that comes to fruition, their overall passing volume will rise as well. Everything is coming together for Andrews to have his most volume-laden game of 2019.

Defense

Indianapolis, $3,600

Deshaun Watson is top-five in the NFL in sacks taken at 18 and the Colts’ defense is in the top half of the league in sacks per game at 2.6. Against the Chiefs, the Colts hit Patrick Mahomes eight times and sacked him four times. If their plan to shut down elite passers continues to work, the $2,000 price tag will be nothing.