Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys, $6,400
Dak Prescott and the Cowboys can clinch the least coveted division title this week with a win over the Eagles. The matchup features a 46-point total with the Cowboys getting three. Even in positive game-script, this game sets up particularly well for Dak and the receivers.
The Eagles have allowed 41.9 DraftKings points to opposing receiving units this season, second only to the Bucs.
Finally, the Cowboys passing game is coming off a dud as Zeke and Tony Pollard went to town on the Rams last week. Capitalize on the recency bias with a Dak stack.
Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville Jaguars, $7,200
There are two reasons to play Fournettte this week:
- He is second in touches per game (23.1) but 7th in salary cap this week
- Stacking him with the Jags defense is a massive leverage play
Right now, our ownership projections have Austin Hooper as the highest-owned tight end, Matt Ryan as the No. 5 owned passer, and Julio Jones as the No. 2 owned receiver.
There’s too much chalk on the Falcons’ side of the ball to not fade them. If Jacksonville’s defense can generate some pressure on Ryan, stacking Fournette with them will be massively profitable.
Deandre Washington, Oakland Raiders, $4,000
Deandre Washington is a name you’d expect to find in Jon Kelly’s cash game article but he’s too good of a play to fade in tournaments. Josh Jacobs is expected to sit, elevating Washington to the starting role. He occupied this role two weeks ago and smashed with 21.6 points. The volume he saw was encouraging as well. He carried the ball 14 times to Jalen Richard’s eight and he saw seven targets. This mark led the team and dispelled any concerns that Richard would eliminate Washington’s passing-game opportunities.
Washington is too cheap to fail this week and is well worth eating the chalk. I’ll be rolling 100% Washington out and recommend you do the same.
Curtis Samuel, Carolina Panthers, $4,500
The negative impact that Kyle Allen has had on Curtis Samuel’s fantasy value simply cannot be understated. Samuel is 10th in the NFL with 1,411 air yards but 56th in fantasy points. He leads all players in incomplete air yards. He is the only receiver with at least 200 receiving yards catching less than half of his air yards.
Grier doesn’t have to be good to be an improvement over Allen. He just has to be competent enough to make Samuel anything other than the least efficient receiver in the league.
Bet on that being true of Grier, who threw for over 7,500 yards and 70 scores in his two seasons at West Virginia.
Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos, $6,400
Drew Lock has started three games this season and he’s locked onto Courtland Sutton because Courtland Sutton is a grown ass man.
The one aspect of Sutton’s game that has been a negative since Lock got the starting role has been his target depth. It dropped from 12.5 to 10.1 with Lock under center, slightly capping his big-play upside.
That should turn around this week. Sutton’s 37% air yards share is 11th over the past three weeks and he faces the Lions on Sunday. The Lions have allowed an average depth of target of 10.1 this season and they’re the only team allowing more than 10.1 air yards per target.
Expect a rebound week from Sutton versus Detroit.
Hunter Henry, LA Chargers, $4,700
Henry is a great pivot off of Austin Hooper at the mid-4k price range. Since returning in Week 6, Henry is third among tight ends with 626 air yards and sixth in targets at 58.
This week he faces the Oakland defense who is coming off a debilitating loss to Jacksonville. The defeat essentially removes them from the playoff conversation, giving them no motivation to show up on the road. They’ve also been a horrid defense all season, even with motivation. They are the only team allowing passers to average eight yards per attempt.
Henry should go to work on the worst passing defense in the league.
Jacksonville Jaguars, $2,200
On top of the leverage the Jags offer, they are super cheap and face Atlanta. The Falcons are bottom-10 in sacks allowed at 3.1 per game. Despite their secondary falling apart, Jacksonville has still maintained a dominant pass rush this season. They are fifth in the NFL with 43 sacks on the year.
It doesn’t take much for the Jags to return value at $2,200, but the payout, if they smash, will be incredible.