The Fantasy Bros

Daily Fantasy Sports

DraftKings Tournament Breakdown: Week 13

Kyle Dvorchak

Quarterback

Nick Foles, Jacksonville Jaguars, $5,700

If last week taught you anything, it should be to buy unpopular quarterbacks in bounce-back spot. Then build your stack from there. Baker Mayfield was owned but not as much as most quarterbacks that face Miami. Nobody (except us here at The Fantasy Bros) was on Kyle Allen, despite the fact that he was a dog in the Superdome.

This week’s play is Nick Foles. Foles and the Jaguars have been disappointing since the passers’ return to the lineup but they get a great spot for passers: Tampa Bay.

The Bucs have allowed the second-most passing yards (3,360) and touchdowns (26) this season.  No team has had more passes attempted against them either (459). 

The stacking starts with Foles.

Running Back

Benny Snell Jr., Pittsburgh Steelers, $4,700

James Conner is shaping up as an inactive again this week while he deals with a knee injury. As of Wednesday, he has yet to practice. That leaves Benny Snell Jr. and Jaylen Samuels as Pittsburgh's lead backs.

Last week, Samuels was completely cut out of that role and it was Snell who got the bulk of the team’s carries. He carried the ball 21 times which accounted for 68% of the team’s carries. Samuels rushed two times.

Pittsburgh is at home and starting their third-string quarterback. Much like last week—when 56% of their plays were rushes—it’s likely that Mike Tomlin rolls with a very rush-heavy attack. If Snell is going to get a large majority of the carries in this offense, he’s a borderline cash play. He won’t be owned like that though.

Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles, $5,400

Another backup in a good spot, Miles Sanders faces the Miami defense this week and Jordan Howard is expected to be out again. In two games with Howard out, Sanders is averaging 14 touches. He’s also been targeted nine times over that span.

Sanders isn’t a full blown workhorse back but he does see most of his team’s work out of the backfield and the Eagles’ offense is in the ultimate buy-low spot. They play Miami this week as 10-point favorites.

The Dolphins have a bottom-five defense in points allowed to running backs and this will be Sanders’ first start as a favorite. Play him for volume and the points will come.

Wide Receiver

D.J. Chark & Chris Conley, Jacksonville Jaguars, $6,600 & $4,500

Nick Foles has been back for two games. The wide receiver volume breakdown:

  • D.J. Chark - 21 targets, 274 air yards
  • Chris Conley - 17 targets, 269 air yards
  • Dede Westbrook - 15 targets, 128 air yards

Chark is still the guy in Jacksonville but Conley is now carving out a very useful role as the team’s deep threat and he’ getting a significant number of targets in that role. Westbrook has been relegated to an underneath possession receiver.

If you’re playing Foles, you have to double-stack him because Foles brings little, if any, rushing equity to the table. Follow the air yards and run him back with Conley and Chark.

Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, $6,900

DraftKings was very reactive with their pricing for the Bucs receivers this week. Mike Evans dropped $400 while Chris Godwin’s cost rose by $500. The duo has combined for eight games of at least 25 points but the catch is that they haven’t done so in the same game. Godwin, coming off a monster week, is likely going to be the more popular of the two.

That should have you on Evans but so should his volume.

Evans has a 24% target share to Godwin’s 23% but his market share of air yards is far beyond that of Godwin.

He has accounted for 36% of the team's air yards while Godwin has just 24% to his name. Evans’ ceilings game are better than almost any other receiver in the league. Now he comes at a discount in both cost and ownership.

Tight End

Darren Waller, TE,  $5,500

Four weeks ago, Darren Waller was a top-three scoring tight end and cost $6,300. Now he’s down to $5,500 and for good reason.

Waller’s first six games on a per game basis:

  • 8.3 targets 
  • 7.3 receptions
  • 80.8 receiving yards

His last five games:

  • 5.6 targets
  • 3 receptions
  • 44.4 receiving yards

Hunter Renfrow’s mini breakout just so happens to have started at the beginning of the second split. Renfrow is out now and the Raiders are 10-point dogs to the Chiefs.

Expect a big return to form for Waller this week.

Defense

Pittsburgh Steelers, $3,500

Pittsburgh doesn’t project as a great play this week but they’re at home and they face a Browns offense that is going to garner some ownership after exploding for 42 points last week.

Even after a few efficient weeks, the Browns are 11th in turnovers (18) and Baker Mayfield has been sacked the 11th-most times this year (27).

The Steelers are third in sacks (38) and second in turnovers (28).

Loading...
The Fantasy Bros

Kyle Dvorchak